Portal Berita Ekonomi Rabu, 26 September 2018

Perspektif Baru Bisnis & Ekonomi

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Executive Brief
  • 14:39 WIB. Sandiaga - Soal isu selingkuh itu adalah fitnah.
  • 14:38 WIB. Gerindra - Tim sudah melaporkan situs fitnah Sandiaga ke Kepolisian.
  • 14:37 WIB. Gerindra - PSI harus berhati-hati dan memerhatikan nilai kemanusiaan jika tanggapi soal situs Sandiaga.
  • 14:36 WIB. Gerindra - PSI jangan menuduh seenaknya soal situs Sandiaga.
  • 14:34 WIB. PAN - 8 karakter utama Prabowo-Sandi, menjadi solusi bagi tindak korupsi di Indonesia
  • 14:34 WIB. PAN - 8 karakter utama Prabowo-Sandiaga lebih mudah dipahami masyarakat.
  • 14:33 WIB. PAN - Dengan 8 karakter utama Prabowo-Sandiaga, masalah Indonesia teratasi.
  • 14:30 WIB. PAN - Visi misi Prabowo-Sandiaga lebih membumi ketimbang 'Revolusi Mental'.
  • 12:31 WIB. Hukum - Anggota DPRD Sumba Barat Daya, NTT ditangkap Polres Jakbar soal narkoba.
  • 12:29 WIB. PSI - Tidak mungkin materi negatif diproduksi TKN Jokowi-Ma'ruf.
  • 12:29 WIB. PSI - Kampanye hitam tidak boleh berkembang dalam demokrasi.
  • 12:28 WIB. PSI - Kampanye hitam bertentangan dengan nilai-nilai yang dikembangkan Jokowi.
  • 12:28 WIB. PSI - Pendukung Jokowi-Ma'ruf, wajib mengutuk kampanye hitam.
  • 12:26 WIB. PSI - Meminta kepolisian segera mengusut tuntas kasus fitnah Sandiaga.
  • 12:25 WIB. PSI - Bisa saja situs fitnah Sandiaga dibuat pendukung Prabowo-Sandi.

Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

Foto Berita Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?
Warta Ekonomi.co.id, Jakarta -

South Africa, famous for great white sharks, could be the next focus for currency vigilantes. 2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will continue.

When examining whether an emerging market country is at risk of a currency crisis, the economic indicator of choice is import cover. This gives a measurement of the amount of a country's foreign exchange reserves relative to its imports. It is usually expressed in terms of how many months of imports the foreign exchange reserves are able to buy before they run out.

An emerging market country with 10 or more months of import cover is considered to be stable. South Africa's import cover is 5.5 months, down from 7.2 months at the end of 2015. According to World Bank data, that's about the same as Turkey. (For perspective, China’s Import Cover is 16 months.)

What this means is that there is increasing pressure on South Africa's foreign exchange reserves, which not only have to pay for imports but also have to service the country's external debt. Reserves are also used to defend a currency from attack via intervention, but a country with low reserves has little defense. And once the currency market sharks get a sniff of blood in the water, it can get quite frenzied very quickly.

Thankfully, we do not have to guess about all the different economic variables that could or could not happen. We rely on what we consider to be the best lead indicator – the market price. The chart below shows the amount of South African rand needed to buy one U.S. dollar.

The exchange rate hit a low of 11.5078 in February this year, and it currently hovers around 15. Our Elliott wave analysis is pointing to much higher levels in the exchange rate, meaning a depreciating rand. Expect fears of a South African rand crisis to grow.

Tag: Afrika Selatan

Penulis: Murray Gunn, Head of Research for Elliott Wave International's Global Market Perspective

Editor: Cahyo Prayogo

Foto: Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko

Kurs Rupiah

Mata Uang Simbol Nilai Jual Beli
Arab Saudi Riyal SAR 1.00 4,003.04 3,962.94
British Pound GBP 1.00 19,785.63 19,586.46
China Yuan CNY 1.00 2,189.41 2,167.53
Dolar Amerika Serikat USD 1.00 15,013.00 14,863.00
Dolar Australia AUD 1.00 10,929.46 10,818.78
Dolar Hong Kong HKD 1.00 1,921.15 1,901.93
Dolar Singapura SGD 1.00 10,996.92 10,886.25
EURO Spot Rate EUR 1.00 17,662.79 17,480.37
Ringgit Malaysia MYR 1.00 3,628.96 3,588.36
Yen Jepang JPY 100.00 13,297.61 13,161.25

Ringkasan BEI

No Name Today Change Stock
1 Composite Index 5874.299 -7.921 602
2 Agriculture 1559.439 -8.071 20
3 Mining 1942.424 18.950 46
4 Basic Industry and Chemicals 799.490 -12.818 71
5 Miscellanous Industry 1231.155 10.426 45
6 Consumer Goods 2453.180 1.457 47
7 Cons., Property & Real Estate 417.837 -2.637 68
8 Infrastruc., Utility & Trans. 1015.005 3.459 69
9 Finance 1061.250 -2.002 91
10 Trade & Service 817.631 -3.451 145
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 PANI 476 595 119 25.00
2 PKPK 140 175 35 25.00
3 DIGI 825 1,030 205 24.85
4 INAF 4,020 4,970 950 23.63
5 NIKL 2,830 3,480 650 22.97
6 SIMA 119 144 25 21.01
7 SHID 2,800 3,300 500 17.86
8 PNSE 665 770 105 15.79
9 LPLI 151 174 23 15.23
10 JPRS 206 234 28 13.59
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 ABMM 2,100 1,680 -420 -20.00
2 LPIN 1,205 1,015 -190 -15.77
3 ERTX 137 120 -17 -12.41
4 KPAL 496 436 -60 -12.10
5 SONA 5,950 5,500 -450 -7.56
6 VRNA 107 99 -8 -7.48
7 MTDL 775 720 -55 -7.10
8 PTSN 318 296 -22 -6.92
9 LMSH 690 645 -45 -6.52
10 ICON 93 87 -6 -6.45
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 TRAM 210 214 4 1.90
2 BMTR 420 418 -2 -0.48
3 KPIG 690 680 -10 -1.45
4 PKPK 140 175 35 25.00
5 NUSA 182 171 -11 -6.04
6 TKIM 14,000 13,500 -500 -3.57
7 BBRI 3,010 3,030 20 0.66
8 BHIT 90 89 -1 -1.11
9 BCAP 300 296 -4 -1.33
10 MEDC 815 890 75 9.20