Portal Berita Ekonomi Jum'at, 22 Februari 2019

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Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

Foto Berita Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?
Warta Ekonomi.co.id, Jakarta -

South Africa, famous for great white sharks, could be the next focus for currency vigilantes. 2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will continue.

When examining whether an emerging market country is at risk of a currency crisis, the economic indicator of choice is import cover. This gives a measurement of the amount of a country's foreign exchange reserves relative to its imports. It is usually expressed in terms of how many months of imports the foreign exchange reserves are able to buy before they run out.

An emerging market country with 10 or more months of import cover is considered to be stable. South Africa's import cover is 5.5 months, down from 7.2 months at the end of 2015. According to World Bank data, that's about the same as Turkey. (For perspective, China’s Import Cover is 16 months.)

What this means is that there is increasing pressure on South Africa's foreign exchange reserves, which not only have to pay for imports but also have to service the country's external debt. Reserves are also used to defend a currency from attack via intervention, but a country with low reserves has little defense. And once the currency market sharks get a sniff of blood in the water, it can get quite frenzied very quickly.

Thankfully, we do not have to guess about all the different economic variables that could or could not happen. We rely on what we consider to be the best lead indicator – the market price. The chart below shows the amount of South African rand needed to buy one U.S. dollar.

The exchange rate hit a low of 11.5078 in February this year, and it currently hovers around 15. Our Elliott wave analysis is pointing to much higher levels in the exchange rate, meaning a depreciating rand. Expect fears of a South African rand crisis to grow.

Tag: Afrika Selatan

Penulis: Murray Gunn, Head of Research for Elliott Wave International's Global Market Perspective

Editor: Cahyo Prayogo

Foto: Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko

Kurs Rupiah

Mata Uang Simbol Nilai Jual Beli
Arab Saudi Riyal SAR 1.00 3,767.30 3,729.07
British Pound GBP 1.00 18,411.72 18,223.66
China Yuan CNY 1.00 2,101.61 2,080.78
Dolar Amerika Serikat USD 1.00 14,127.00 13,987.00
Dolar Australia AUD 1.00 10,109.28 10,006.30
Dolar Hong Kong HKD 1.00 1,800.01 1,782.15
Dolar Singapura SGD 1.00 10,447.42 10,343.12
EURO Spot Rate EUR 1.00 16,020.02 15,854.26
Ringgit Malaysia MYR 1.00 3,471.01 3,432.39
Yen Jepang JPY 100.00 12,756.91 12,629.35

Ringkasan BEI

No Name Today Change Stock
1 Composite Index 6537.766 24.982 628
2 Agriculture 1616.672 15.458 21
3 Mining 1935.600 28.600 47
4 Basic Industry and Chemicals 903.282 9.632 71
5 Miscellanous Industry 1347.154 -12.736 46
6 Consumer Goods 2654.468 -5.813 51
7 Cons., Property & Real Estate 459.894 1.147 74
8 Infrastruc., Utility & Trans. 1214.069 7.199 72
9 Finance 1243.721 7.000 91
10 Trade & Service 827.313 1.685 155
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 JAYA 288 432 144 50.00
2 OCAP 54 72 18 33.33
3 PUDP 356 430 74 20.79
4 PJAA 1,260 1,500 240 19.05
5 YULE 175 208 33 18.86
6 INPS 2,100 2,400 300 14.29
7 BRAM 6,200 7,000 800 12.90
8 IKAI 179 200 21 11.73
9 INDY 1,955 2,180 225 11.51
10 IBFN 240 266 26 10.83
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 ALDO 1,900 1,425 -475 -25.00
2 ARTA 980 780 -200 -20.41
3 KBLV 525 454 -71 -13.52
4 CSAP 600 540 -60 -10.00
5 AKPI 690 625 -65 -9.42
6 CLAY 1,540 1,395 -145 -9.42
7 BNLI 1,150 1,055 -95 -8.26
8 PSDN 260 242 -18 -6.92
9 SIPD 1,030 960 -70 -6.80
10 TRIS 236 220 -16 -6.78
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 PGAS 2,490 2,640 150 6.02
2 ADRO 1,345 1,415 70 5.20
3 JPFA 2,310 2,330 20 0.87
4 INDY 1,955 2,180 225 11.51
5 BUMI 150 163 13 8.67
6 BMRI 7,100 7,325 225 3.17
7 UNTR 26,000 26,500 500 1.92
8 ESTI 91 92 1 1.10
9 BNLI 1,150 1,055 -95 -8.26
10 LEAD 92 86 -6 -6.52