Portal Berita Ekonomi Rabu, 17 Juli 2019

Perspektif Baru Bisnis & Ekonomi

  • icon facebook kecil
  • icon twitter kecil
  • icon feed kecil
  • icon youtube kecil
  • icon email kecil
Executive Brief
  • 15:26 WIB. Ganja - Bea Cukai gagalkan penyeludupan 39 kg ganja di wilayah Dumai.
  • 14:57 WIB. Ericsson - Ericsson mengatakan bahwa on track mencapai target laba.
  • 14:01 WIB. Go-Jek - Go-Jek dapat investasi baru dari Visa.
  • 12:06 WIB. IHSG - IHSG amblas 0,31% di akhir sesi I.
  • 11:59 WIB. Facebook - Facebook rekrut mantan CEO Vine, Jason Toff untuk bergabung dengan tim eksperimen produk baru.
  • 11:36 WIB. Realme - Realme disebut mau rilis ponsel flagship lagi tahun ini.
  • 11:26 WIB. Facebook - Facebook tak akan rilis Libra sampai penuhi aturan.
  • 11:15 WIB. Libra - Senator AS: Jangan percaya dengan 'rencana gila' uang kripto Facebook.
  • 10:28 WIB. Samsung - Samsung patenkan kacamata AR.
  • 10:26 WIB. NATO - Trump berjanji tidak akan jual pesawat F-35 ke Turki.
  • 08:09 WIB. Suku bunga - The Fed sedang merumuskan seberapa jauh suku bunga acuan diturunkan.
  • 07:16 WIB. Uang kripto - Bitcoin turun 10% setelah isu senator AS menggoyang rencana Facebook untuk Libra.

Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis? - Warta Ekonomi
WE Online, Jakarta -

South Africa, famous for great white sharks, could be the next focus for currency vigilantes. 2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will continue.

When examining whether an emerging market country is at risk of a currency crisis, the economic indicator of choice is import cover. This gives a measurement of the amount of a country's foreign exchange reserves relative to its imports. It is usually expressed in terms of how many months of imports the foreign exchange reserves are able to buy before they run out.

An emerging market country with 10 or more months of import cover is considered to be stable. South Africa's import cover is 5.5 months, down from 7.2 months at the end of 2015. According to World Bank data, that's about the same as Turkey. (For perspective, China’s Import Cover is 16 months.)

What this means is that there is increasing pressure on South Africa's foreign exchange reserves, which not only have to pay for imports but also have to service the country's external debt. Reserves are also used to defend a currency from attack via intervention, but a country with low reserves has little defense. And once the currency market sharks get a sniff of blood in the water, it can get quite frenzied very quickly.

Thankfully, we do not have to guess about all the different economic variables that could or could not happen. We rely on what we consider to be the best lead indicator – the market price. The chart below shows the amount of South African rand needed to buy one U.S. dollar.

The exchange rate hit a low of 11.5078 in February this year, and it currently hovers around 15. Our Elliott wave analysis is pointing to much higher levels in the exchange rate, meaning a depreciating rand. Expect fears of a South African rand crisis to grow.

Tag: Afrika Selatan

Penulis: Murray Gunn, Head of Research for Elliott Wave International's Global Market Perspective

Editor: Cahyo Prayogo

Foto: Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko

Kurs Rupiah

Mata Uang Simbol Nilai Jual Beli
Arab Saudi Riyal SAR 1.00 3,738.00 3,699.88
British Pound GBP 1.00 17,403.19 17,223.84
China Yuan CNY 1.00 2,036.85 2,016.51
Dolar Amerika Serikat USD 1.00 14,019.00 13,879.00
Dolar Australia AUD 1.00 9,828.72 9,729.18
Dolar Hong Kong HKD 1.00 1,794.23 1,776.19
Dolar Singapura SGD 1.00 10,317.95 10,211.15
EURO Spot Rate EUR 1.00 15,718.10 15,555.58
Ringgit Malaysia MYR 1.00 3,408.46 3,371.14
Yen Jepang JPY 100.00 12,962.55 12,829.54

Ringkasan BEI

No Name Today Change Stock
1 Composite Index 6401.880 -16.354 652
2 Agriculture 1362.219 -4.003 21
3 Mining 1640.104 10.372 49
4 Basic Industry and Chemicals 800.486 -7.349 72
5 Miscellanous Industry 1307.736 2.373 49
6 Consumer Goods 2348.869 1.590 53
7 Cons., Property & Real Estate 496.094 -3.438 80
8 Infrastruc., Utility & Trans. 1236.698 -3.730 74
9 Finance 1326.712 -5.432 91
10 Trade & Service 817.840 -0.912 163
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 BLUE 625 780 155 24.80
2 TRIO 342 426 84 24.56
3 ENVY 885 1,065 180 20.34
4 TMAS 875 1,005 130 14.86
5 GSMF 99 112 13 13.13
6 CINT 268 300 32 11.94
7 TFCO 540 600 60 11.11
8 PALM 234 258 24 10.26
9 IPOL 98 107 9 9.18
10 IBFN 232 252 20 8.62
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 POSA 428 322 -106 -24.77
2 SSTM 525 400 -125 -23.81
3 CSAP 595 520 -75 -12.61
4 BEEF 270 242 -28 -10.37
5 BIPI 58 52 -6 -10.34
6 WICO 600 545 -55 -9.17
7 SMMA 9,975 9,175 -800 -8.02
8 NICK 268 248 -20 -7.46
9 JAWA 121 112 -9 -7.44
10 APLI 100 93 -7 -7.00
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 SRIL 340 340 0 0.00
2 IPTV 242 246 4 1.65
3 MNCN 1,450 1,445 -5 -0.34
4 TINS 1,025 1,080 55 5.37
5 ANTM 880 895 15 1.70
6 BIPI 58 52 -6 -10.34
7 TLKM 4,280 4,240 -40 -0.93
8 APLN 242 228 -14 -5.79
9 ENVY 885 1,065 180 20.34
10 MYOR 2,220 2,140 -80 -3.60