Portal Berita Ekonomi Kamis, 20 September 2018

Perspektif Baru Bisnis & Ekonomi

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Executive Brief
  • 17:53 WIB. Malaysia - 21 orang tewas karena miras oplosan di Malaysia.
  • 17:52 WIB. Kolera - Zimbabwe butuh Rp525 miliar untuk basmi wabah kolera.
  • 17:51 WIB. Suriah - Hizbullah akan kurangi pasukan di Suriah.
  • 17:50 WIB. World Bank - Bank Dunia: angka kemiskinan global terendah tahun ini.
  • 17:48 WIB. Myanmar - Inggris umumkan dukungan untuk Muslim Rohingya.
  • 17:47 WIB. United States - Satu dari tiga rumah di AS kesulitan bayar listrik.
  • 17:40 WIB. KPU - Selain OSO juga ada Juventus G May yang dicoret dari daftar calon DPD.
  • 17:40 WIB. KPU - OSO belum menyerahkan surat pengunduran diri dari partai Hanura.
  • 17:14 WIB. KPU - Nama Oesman Sapta Ondang dicoret dari daftar calon DPD.
  • 17:13 WIB. Rohingya - Muhammadiyah minta Presiden Jokowi suarakan Rohingya di PBB.
  • 17:12 WIB. Kemiskinan - Bank Dunia: angka kemiskinan global terendah tahun ini.
  • 16:50 WIB. UMKM - KPw BI cabang Gorontalo ajak UMKM menangkan pasar dengan memanfaatkan E-Commerce.
  • 16:46 WIB. Beras - 2,4 juta ton beras di gudang Bulog belum termasuk beras impor yang akan masuk pada Oktober sebesar 400 ribu ton.
  • 16:45 WIB. Beras - Buwas menyebutkan, saat ini cadangan beras di gudang Bulog mencapai 2,4 juta ton.
  • 16:42 WIB. Impor - Menko Perekonomian akan mempertemukan Mendag dengan Dirut Perum Bulog serta Mentan terkait polemik impor beras.

Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

Foto Berita Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?
Warta Ekonomi.co.id, Jakarta -

South Africa, famous for great white sharks, could be the next focus for currency vigilantes. 2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will continue.

When examining whether an emerging market country is at risk of a currency crisis, the economic indicator of choice is import cover. This gives a measurement of the amount of a country's foreign exchange reserves relative to its imports. It is usually expressed in terms of how many months of imports the foreign exchange reserves are able to buy before they run out.

An emerging market country with 10 or more months of import cover is considered to be stable. South Africa's import cover is 5.5 months, down from 7.2 months at the end of 2015. According to World Bank data, that's about the same as Turkey. (For perspective, China’s Import Cover is 16 months.)

What this means is that there is increasing pressure on South Africa's foreign exchange reserves, which not only have to pay for imports but also have to service the country's external debt. Reserves are also used to defend a currency from attack via intervention, but a country with low reserves has little defense. And once the currency market sharks get a sniff of blood in the water, it can get quite frenzied very quickly.

Thankfully, we do not have to guess about all the different economic variables that could or could not happen. We rely on what we consider to be the best lead indicator – the market price. The chart below shows the amount of South African rand needed to buy one U.S. dollar.

The exchange rate hit a low of 11.5078 in February this year, and it currently hovers around 15. Our Elliott wave analysis is pointing to much higher levels in the exchange rate, meaning a depreciating rand. Expect fears of a South African rand crisis to grow.

Tag: Afrika Selatan

Penulis: Murray Gunn, Head of Research for Elliott Wave International's Global Market Perspective

Editor: Cahyo Prayogo

Foto: Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko

Kurs Rupiah

Mata Uang Simbol Nilai Jual Beli
Arab Saudi Riyal SAR 1.00 3,976.27 3,936.70
British Pound GBP 1.00 19,606.12 19,408.59
China Yuan CNY 1.00 2,176.13 2,154.53
Dolar Amerika Serikat USD 1.00 14,913.00 14,765.00
Dolar Australia AUD 1.00 10,826.84 10,716.44
Dolar Hong Kong HKD 1.00 1,901.17 1,882.26
Dolar Singapura SGD 1.00 10,897.33 10,787.61
EURO Spot Rate EUR 1.00 17,422.86 17,245.52
Ringgit Malaysia MYR 1.00 3,606.53 3,566.43
Yen Jepang JPY 100.00 13,299.74 13,164.23

Ringkasan BEI

No Name Today Change Stock
1 Composite Index 5931.266 57.669 602
2 Agriculture 1584.135 11.004 20
3 Mining 1936.077 20.470 46
4 Basic Industry and Chemicals 810.673 14.455 71
5 Miscellanous Industry 1272.514 15.152 45
6 Consumer Goods 2477.630 29.722 47
7 Cons., Property & Real Estate 421.938 0.005 68
8 Infrastruc., Utility & Trans. 1029.500 5.998 69
9 Finance 1067.861 11.961 91
10 Trade & Service 821.943 1.167 145
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 BKDP 62 83 21 33.87
2 HDTX 172 218 46 26.74
3 DIGI 424 530 106 25.00
4 PANI 246 306 60 24.39
5 KPAL 442 530 88 19.91
6 TRUS 170 200 30 17.65
7 OKAS 195 222 27 13.85
8 DYAN 88 100 12 13.64
9 MINA 464 525 61 13.15
10 ARTO 137 154 17 12.41
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 CNTX 680 580 -100 -14.71
2 DNAR 310 266 -44 -14.19
3 DSSA 16,300 14,000 -2,300 -14.11
4 GLOB 160 140 -20 -12.50
5 RELI 262 234 -28 -10.69
6 INPP 660 590 -70 -10.61
7 SRAJ 139 125 -14 -10.07
8 BULL 169 153 -16 -9.47
9 YPAS 700 635 -65 -9.29
10 ALMI 350 320 -30 -8.57
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 PNLF 238 232 -6 -2.52
2 BMTR 406 406 0 0.00
3 KPIG 710 690 -20 -2.82
4 BBRI 3,000 3,090 90 3.00
5 DYAN 88 100 12 13.64
6 BHIT 88 90 2 2.27
7 TLKM 3,550 3,600 50 1.41
8 INKP 17,850 18,300 450 2.52
9 ADRO 1,740 1,805 65 3.74
10 PGAS 2,020 2,080 60 2.97