Portal Berita Ekonomi Selasa, 22 Januari 2019

Perspektif Baru Bisnis & Ekonomi

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Executive Brief
  • 16:01 WIB. IHSG - Akhiri sesi II, IHSG menguat 0,27% ke level 6.468,56. 
  • 15:38 WIB. HIM - Darmin sarankan Hari Indonesia Menabung jatuh di setiap awal bulan. 
  • 15:35 WIB. Garam - Kurangnya kemampuan petani garam dalam penuhi kebutuhan industri jadi alasan tingginya angka impor garam ke Indonesia. 
  • 15:34 WIB. Fintech - Hingga tahun 2018, OJK dan Kemenkominfo sudah menutup ratusan fintech bermasalah. 
  • 15:31 WIB. HIM - Pemerintah bersama Bank Indonesia dan OJK akan inisiasikan Hari Indonesia Menabung. 
  • 15:29 WIB. Jamkrindo Syariah - Jamkrindo Syariah menargetkan pendapatan penjaminan langsung naik 50%.
  • 15:29 WIB. DTA - Inalum tanam pohon melalui program rehabilitasi lahan kritis di daerah tangkapan air (DTA) Danau Toba. 
  • 15:28 WIB. PGE - Pertamina Geothermal Energy menargetkan kapasitas terpasang panas bumi 1.057 MW di 2025.
  • 15:27 WIB. Pertamina Internasional EP - Pertamina Internasional menargetkan pendapatan hingga US$1,4 miliar dengan EBITDA sebesar US$698 juta.
  • 15:27 WIB. Pertamina Internasional EP - Pertamina Internasional EP menyiapkan investasi US$174 juta.
  • 15:26 WIB. Limbah - Biaya pengolahan limbah B3 sepanjang tahun 2018 mencapai US$4,23 juta. 
  • 15:26 WIB. Inflasi - Pengamat prediksi inflasi di NTT pada triwulan II belum stabil.
  • 15:25 WIB. Charcoal - Sulbar ekspor 8.500 metrik ton Charcoal atau cangkang sawit ke Jepang.
  • 15:23 WIB. Ekonomi - BI khawatir mahalnya tarif pesawat ganggu perkembangan ekonomi Riau.
  • 15:22 WIB. Ekspor - Buah manggis asal Pandeglang siap diekspor ke China.

Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

Foto Berita Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?
Warta Ekonomi.co.id, Jakarta -

South Africa, famous for great white sharks, could be the next focus for currency vigilantes. 2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will continue.

When examining whether an emerging market country is at risk of a currency crisis, the economic indicator of choice is import cover. This gives a measurement of the amount of a country's foreign exchange reserves relative to its imports. It is usually expressed in terms of how many months of imports the foreign exchange reserves are able to buy before they run out.

An emerging market country with 10 or more months of import cover is considered to be stable. South Africa's import cover is 5.5 months, down from 7.2 months at the end of 2015. According to World Bank data, that's about the same as Turkey. (For perspective, China’s Import Cover is 16 months.)

What this means is that there is increasing pressure on South Africa's foreign exchange reserves, which not only have to pay for imports but also have to service the country's external debt. Reserves are also used to defend a currency from attack via intervention, but a country with low reserves has little defense. And once the currency market sharks get a sniff of blood in the water, it can get quite frenzied very quickly.

Thankfully, we do not have to guess about all the different economic variables that could or could not happen. We rely on what we consider to be the best lead indicator – the market price. The chart below shows the amount of South African rand needed to buy one U.S. dollar.

The exchange rate hit a low of 11.5078 in February this year, and it currently hovers around 15. Our Elliott wave analysis is pointing to much higher levels in the exchange rate, meaning a depreciating rand. Expect fears of a South African rand crisis to grow.

Tag: Afrika Selatan

Penulis: Murray Gunn, Head of Research for Elliott Wave International's Global Market Perspective

Editor: Cahyo Prayogo

Foto: Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko

Kurs Rupiah

Mata Uang Simbol Nilai Jual Beli
Arab Saudi Riyal SAR 1.00 3,909.74 3,869.89
British Pound GBP 1.00 18,754.69 18,562.19
China Yuan CNY 1.00 2,114.10 2,093.06
Dolar Amerika Serikat USD 1.00 14,667.00 14,521.00
Dolar Australia AUD 1.00 10,673.18 10,561.12
Dolar Hong Kong HKD 1.00 1,872.96 1,854.27
Dolar Singapura SGD 1.00 10,659.93 10,553.05
EURO Spot Rate EUR 1.00 16,630.91 16,462.46
Ringgit Malaysia MYR 1.00 3,501.31 3,462.33
Yen Jepang JPY 100.00 12,933.86 12,801.73

Ringkasan BEI

No Name Today Change Stock
1 Composite Index 6468.562 17.728 627
2 Agriculture 1647.872 5.750 21
3 Mining 1863.738 -32.436 47
4 Basic Industry and Chemicals 902.800 12.599 71
5 Miscellanous Industry 1405.622 -17.950 46
6 Consumer Goods 2618.712 19.207 51
7 Cons., Property & Real Estate 468.741 3.232 74
8 Infrastruc., Utility & Trans. 1153.740 -1.055 71
9 Finance 1244.267 5.060 91
10 Trade & Service 795.018 0.193 155
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 CLAY 382 476 94 24.61
2 OCAP 212 264 52 24.53
3 MLPT 850 1,030 180 21.18
4 DART 272 328 56 20.59
5 MREI 5,800 6,800 1,000 17.24
6 TIRA 260 300 40 15.38
7 PLIN 3,040 3,500 460 15.13
8 APEX 1,215 1,395 180 14.81
9 ISAT 2,090 2,380 290 13.88
10 SIMA 240 270 30 12.50
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 SQMI 476 358 -118 -24.79
2 INCF 328 264 -64 -19.51
3 PADI 920 760 -160 -17.39
4 HEXA 3,600 3,100 -500 -13.89
5 SDMU 61 53 -8 -13.11
6 HDTX 146 127 -19 -13.01
7 KIOS 1,790 1,580 -210 -11.73
8 CINT 280 250 -30 -10.71
9 KBLI 340 306 -34 -10.00
10 YPAS 710 645 -65 -9.15
No Code Prev Close Change %
1 HOME 144 142 -2 -1.39
2 ERAA 2,240 2,410 170 7.59
3 BBRI 3,800 3,770 -30 -0.79
4 ISAT 2,090 2,380 290 13.88
5 UNTR 26,850 26,100 -750 -2.79
6 TLKM 4,030 4,000 -30 -0.74
7 BNLI 855 900 45 5.26
8 KPAS 200 185 -15 -7.50
9 ADRO 1,470 1,410 -60 -4.08
10 ESTI 91 89 -2 -2.20